Vietnam earned nearly USD 4.4 billion from coffee exports in the first 9 months, an increase of 40% over the same period last year thanks to high prices.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, coffee export prices have been increasing continuously. In September, the average price reached USD 5,469 per ton, the highest level ever.

Accumulated over the first 9 months, the average export price of coffee reached USD 3,897/ton, an increase of 56% compared to the same period last year. Coffee has become the agricultural product with the strongest price increase among Vietnam's main export products.

Accordingly, Vietnam earned nearly USD 4.4 billion from this agricultural product in 9 months, an increase of 40% over the same period in 2023. This level exceeded the turnover of last year.

The market witnessed a "skyrocketing" increase in coffee prices, from VND 40,000 per kilogram in early 2023 to VND 129,000 in April. However, in early October, the price of this agricultural product decreased by VND 4,500 per kilogram, down to VND 117,300, due to the impact of the European Union (EU) announcing the postponement of the implementation of the Anti-Deforestation Law (EUDR).

However, this may be a temporary adjustment as domestic supply is scarce. Many farmers have converted coffee acreage to grow more economically efficient crops such as durian, avocado and passion fruit. This has led to a sharp decline in coffee production.

According to Mr. Phan Minh Thong, General Director of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company, this year's crop yield may increase, but inventories at businesses are very low. For the past four months, businesses, including Phuc Sinh, have had almost no goods to purchase. This makes the business situation unpredictable, especially when geopolitical factors may strongly impact coffee prices in the upcoming period.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, for the 2024-2025 crop year, Vietnam faces many challenges due to unfavorable weather conditions, especially the El Nino phenomenon causing drought and pests. Coffee output is expected to decrease by 5-15% compared to the previous crop year, causing total output to continue to decline.

However, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development remains optimistic. The Ministry forecasts that this year's agricultural export turnover would exceed USD 5 billion, even reaching USD 6 billion thanks to high prices.

Kylie Nguyen