Markets are gradually recovering, seafood exports in the fourth quarter are expected to reach USD 2.4 billion, therefore the whole year's turnover can reach USD 9 billion, according to VASEP.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), after a deep decline in the first half of the year (-27%), since June, the negative growth rate has gradually narrowed. In September alone, export sales were only 5% lower than the same period last year.

The group of 3 key commmodities including shrimp, pangasius, and tuna all had more positive signals in the third quarter. With shrimp, after a decline of 28% in the second quarter, in the last quarter, exports of this product were only 13% lower than the same period in 2022. Pangasius sales were 12% lower and tuna sales were nearly 8% lower, compared to double-digit declines in the second quarter of 41% and 31%, respectively.

Crab products (mainly crabs) also had a remarkable increase in export turnover in the third quarter, more than 1.5 times higher than the second quarter and increased by 2% over the same period last year.

Overall, total seafood export turnover in the third quarter was only 12% lower than the same period last year, also the smallest decrease in the first three quarters of the year.

Among major market blocks, the Middle East is considered an attractive destination for Vietnamese seafood businesses in the last two years, in the context of war, inflation, and the energy price crisis.

In the third quarter, this market alone had positive import growth of seafood from Vietnam, at 2%. Acummulated over the first nine months of the year, this market also had the lowest decrease. The ASEAN and CPTPP markets recorded decreases of 15% and 20% respectively over the same period. Major consumer markets such as the US, EU, China, and Korea Republic all decreased by 17-34%. Exports to Japan had a smaller decrease (-13%).

VASEP assesses that seafood exports in the past quarter have improved but there has not been a strong breakthrough for a stable trend in the near future. The level of recovery in seafood export sales here depends largely on two markets: the US and China. Currently, both markets have positive signs in terms of demand as orders increase again. However, export prices are still lower than the same period last year.

According to VASEP, with the gradual recovery of markets, it is forecast that seafood exports in the fourth quarter could bring in about USD 2.4 billion, equivalent to the same period last year, bringing export turnover for the whole year 2023 to USD 9 billion (reaching the set target), 17% lower than 2022.

Kylie Nguyen