Data from the General Department of Customs shows that pangasius exports in 2023 reached more than USD 1.8 billion, a decrease of 25% compared to 2022, the main reason is the consumption demand of key markets and the sharp decrease in export prices of pangasius.

Pangasius prices fluctuate slightly in the EU and Chinese markets and continue the downward trend in the US market recently..

Meanwhile, fish inventories in the US are still large, import prices still have to compete with inventories, causing pangasius fish prices to decrease. The unstable political situation and global inflation cause consumer demand in many countries to decline.

On the other hand, China - the largest export market of Vietnamese pangasius, is tending to import other types of fish, such as anchovy, snapper, mackerel, tilapia, scad, and glasseye fish. In addition, pangasius production in China is also increasing significantly, currently at 400,000 tons per year.

Analysts believe that there are many factors for pangasius exports to recover in the near future, but the increase will not be too strong.

Russian pollock's import restrictions by Western countries is also a reason why pangasius will benefit in 2024.

In addition, in the first quarter, a decision on reducing US anti-dumping taxes may be issued. When the tax on pangasius products entering the US is cheaper, the selling price of Vietnamese pangasius will be more competitive with other countries, thereby increasing US import demand from Vietnam.

Prices of animal feed ingredients have tended to decrease recently because manufacturers have bought and stored a lot of grain in the previous period due to concerns about scarce supply with the El Nino phenomenon.

However, El Nino may continue until the second quarter, then if grain becomes scarce, animal feed prices will increase, therefore, it is expected that pangasius prices will recover when input material prices are high.

In addition, transportation costs are increasing due to the impact of the war, so the price of exported pangasius may increase in the near future.

According to Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in the last two months of 2023, pangasius exports resumed good growth, this is a positive sign of recovery for the product in 2024.

In 2024, the pangasius industry targets export turnover of USD 2 billion, an increase of 11% compared to 2023. This year, the demand for Vietnamese pangasius in many markets will still be high, especially deeply processed products.

Kylie Nguyen