Based on the trend of industrial production and retail activities in the last two months, VDSC estimates that economic growth in the third quarter could reach 4.5%, higher than the 4.1% increase in the second quarter. Accumulated the first three quarters of the year, economic growth is estimated at 4%.

In the recently published report, Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) stated that industrial production activities were better than the first two quarters of the year, while retail growth slowed to a moderate level.

Based on the trend of industrial production and retail activities in the last two months, VDSC estimates that economic growth in the third quarter could reach 4.5%, higher than the rate of 4.1% in the second quarter. Accumulated in the first three quarters of the year, economic growth is estimated at 4%.

The industrial production index in August continued to record higher growth than the previous month, increased by 2.87% over July and 2.62% over the same period, respectively.

Encouragingly, the growth of the manufacturing and processing industry recorded a higher increase than the general growth rate, 4.5% over July and 3.5% over the same period, respectively.

Industries with strong growth month-on-month are machinery, equipment, motor vehicles and electronic products, and computers. Meanwhile, industries with high growth over the same period include food and beverage processing, chemical production, rubber, metal and beds, cabinets, tables and chairs.

Key export industries such as textiles, seafood, electronics, and wood have not yet shown a recovery in both production index and output over the same period.

However, import data shows that the electronics manufacturing sector may improve in the coming months as the demand for imported raw materials for the production of these items has accelerated in the past 3 months. The latest estimates from the General Statistics Office show that imports of this product group increased by 9.4% over the previous month and decreased only by 2.1% over the same period.

The report also said that the retail sector's trends followed VDSC's expectations when the growth rate of this sector gradually decreased in the third quarter. The positive side is that the rate of decline has been somewhat slowed down thanks to the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies.

Growth in retail sales of goods and services in the first half of the year was 10.9%, which has now decreased to 10.0% in the first 8 months of 2023. In August alone, retail sales of goods increased by 7.5%, meanwhile, the growth of the tourism-related services group was 11.4%, higher than the increase in June and July.

Kylie Nguyen