As of the end of 2022, the global economic picture in 2023 is gradually becoming clearer with a forecast of slowing growth in the context of fluctuations in high inflation, geopolitical issues, armed conflicts, natural disasters, pandemic, etc.

Several international organizations have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth, such as: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the growth rate from 2.9% to 2.7% compared to July 2022. Fitch Ratings revised from its forecast for September 2022, from 1.7% to 1.4%. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has lowered its forecast for world economic growth in 2023 to 2.2% instead of 2.8% as in June's forecast.

Thus, it can be seen that the international context will become more difficult in 2023 and will have a significant impact on Vietnam's economic growth. In this context, the National Assembly has set a growth target of 6.5% in 2023, lower than the result achieved in 2022 at 8.02%, but this is also a challenging target.

To achieve this goal, according to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's economy will be based on key drivers such as:

Agriculture, forestry and fishery activities: In 2022, despite difficulties caused by the post-Covid-19 pandemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that disrupted global production and consumption supply chains, drought, flood, salt water intrusion, etc. but Vietnam's agriculture still achieved stable growth.

The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector continues to clearly demonstrate its supporting role of the economy, not only ensuring the domestic food supply, but also affirming its position as a leading exporter of agricultural products, playing an important role in ensuring global food security.

Although the industry showed signs of decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, a number of processing sectors still maintained good production value growth, which helped curb the sharp fall of the whole industry.

Political stability and social security are ensured through the promotion and effective adjustment of the Economic Recovery Program in 2023; controlled inflation is a factor that helps Vietnam's economy maintain a good growth momentum.

Kylie Nguyen