Export turnover of June continued to improve when it recorded the second consecutive month of increase compared to the previous month.

According to the General Statistics Office, the export turnover of goods in June is estimated at USD 29.3 billion, an increase of 4.5% over the previous month. This is the second consecutive month that export turnover has increased and is near the highest level since the beginning of the year (behind March with a turnover of USD 29.5 billion). However, compared to last year's high baseline level, this is a decrease of 11.4%.

In the opposite direction, the import turnover of goods in June is estimated at USD 26.71 billion, an increase of 2.6% over the previous month and a decrease of 16.9% over the same period last year.

Accumulated over the first six months of 2023, export turnover of goods is estimated at USD 164.45 billion, a decrease of 12.1% over the same period last year. Imports of goods are estimated at USD 152.2 billion, a decrease of 18.2%.

Thus, Vietnam had a trade surplus of USD 2.6 billion in June and a trade surplus of USD 12.25 billion in the first half of 2023.

The US is still Vietnam's largest consumption market in the first half of this year with USD 44.2 billion, a decrease of 22.6%. The trade surplus to this market reached USD 37.2 billion, a decrease of 35% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam has the largest trade deficit from China with USD 24.5 billion, a decrease of 31% over the same period.

Regarding export orders, according to the General Statistics Office, a survey showed the trend in the third quarter, with 26.7% of enterprises expect to have increase in new export orders; 46.2% of enterprises expect to have stable number of orders and 27.1% of enterprises expect a decrease in the number of orders.

In a recent report of SSI Securities JSC, analysts said that the growth prospect for exports in the third quarter - the peak quarter of export activities is not really positive.

Also making a forecast on import and export, BIDV Securities (BSC) in the latest report emphasized that with the world macro data showing a decline in consumption trend and a decline in the industrial sector, it is likely that export growth will be affected. BSC maintains lower import and export forecast for 2023 in both scenarios.

Specifically, in the negative scenario, exports may decrease by 13.5% and imports by 16.7%. In the positive scenario, exports could fall by 7.4% and imports could fall by 9.3%.

Kylie Nguyen