According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, import-export activities are forecast to prosper in the last months of the year when consumer demand in major markets such as the US, EU, and China increases and inventories decrease.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade's report, in the first nine months of 2023, the total import and export turnover of goods reached USD 497.6 billion, a decrease of 11% over the same period last year.

Of which, the export turnover of goods is estimated at USD 259.7 billion, decreased by 8% over the same period last year; Import turnover reached USD 237.9 billion, decreased by 14%. The trade balance of goods in the first nine months of the year with a surplus of USD 21.6 billion.

The US is Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of USD 70.9 billion, a decrease of 17% over the same period in 2022. China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of USD 79.1 billion, a decrease of 14%.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that import and export activities are expected to continue to improve in the last months of the year due to support from factors such as inflation tending to cool down in major economies such as the US and EU.

Demand for goods also often increases during year-end festivals, while inventories in major markets are gradually decreasing.

On the other hand, Vietnam is also expected to benefit from multinational corporations shifting production from China to Vietnam.

In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that China - Vietnam's second largest commodity export market - has lowered interest rates to revive the economy, also opening up hope for consumer demand and production will improve in the near future.

According to China's statistics agency, the country's purchasing managers index (PMI) increased from 49.7 points in August to 50.2 points in September, exceeding the previous forecast of 50 points. The PMI index exceeding 50 points shows that the manufacturing industries of the world's second largest economy are gradually regaining balance.

Besides favorable factors, Vietnam's import and export activities still face risk factors related to geopolitical tensions, energy crisis, slow global economic recovery, supply chain disruption, etc.

In addition, another risk factor is that multinational corporations are shifting their supply chains and production closer to the consumer market (near sourcing) and are diversifying their production supply chains, instead of just concentrating production factories in some countries such as China and Vietnam.

Kylie Nguyen